The Mood Swings Are Real
On Monday, the market tanked after Trump criticized Jerome Powell, reigniting fears over central bank independence. Combine that with trade war anxiety, and boom—risk-off. The S&P 500 gapped down after the holiday and continued to drop throughout the day.
Fast forward 24 hours: Trump says Powell’s safe. Bessent says trade war de-escalation is likely. Stocks rip higher. This time, it gapped higher and continued for most of the day.
The fundamentals didn’t change. The data didn’t shift. The mood did.
Why This Matters for Traders
Whether you’re long-term or intraday, ignoring the news cycle isn’t an option right now. This is a market that:
- Moves 2%+ on single comments
- Lives and dies by perception more than earnings
- Trades more on what might happen than what has happened
It’s not just about Trump. It’s about how much sway political and macro headlines have when liquidity is shallow and positioning is tight—especially in environments dominated by 0DTE options, algos, and reactionary retail flow.
How to Adapt Without Losing Your Mind
📍Tighten Your Timeframes
If you’re a short-term trader, keep your stops tight and your targets modest. The intraday swings are vicious. Get in, get out.
📍Use News Filters or Alerts
Headline speed matters. Newswire alerts can help you stay one step ahead—or at least not a step behind.
📍Know the Calendar
Earnings reports, Fed speeches, and scheduled political briefings should be in your trading plan every week. Don’t get blindsided by a Powell Q&A or surprise press conference.
📍Avoid Chasing the First Move
The first reaction to a headline is often wrong—or exaggerated. Wait for confirmation. Let the market digest the news before you hit “buy” or “sell.”
📍Don’t Fight the Tape
Trying to fade a market rally just because it “doesn’t make sense” is a fast way to get run over. This market cares more about narrative than logic right now.
Where To Look
The gaming industry has been recession-resilient, with some reports suggesting that sales and engagement actually increased during previous recessions.
People may spend more time and money on gaming to make the most of their existing resources.
For example, Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is in the Consumer Communications sector, but has bucked the trends of its counterparts like Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META). It’s not the perfect chart, but the stock is moving from the lower left to the upper right on the chart below.
Add to that the seasonal bullishness in May, with a monthly average gain of 8.07% from 2010 to 2025.
What’s interesting is that the 10-day simple moving average also just crossed above the 30-day moving average. So, I tested the last 5 years to see what happened to the price when that occurred, exiting the trade when the 30-day line crossed back above the 10-day SMA. That strategy has a 60% win rate over five trades (and waiting for the 30 to cross under the 10 is too slow).
It’s not the most data to analyze, but it’s something.
I started looking at the 23MAY $210 / 220 call debit spread going for $4.65. That still allows me the opportunity for the trade to double my investment (the maximum profit is $10) if TTWO increases by 3.7% from $212 to $220 by expiration. Looking at the chart, the stock reached a high of $220 for its last swing.
Yes, I know that earnings are coming up around mid-May, and that’s likely the culprit for the strong seasonal results over the last 15 years.
Final Take
This week is a great reminder that markets don’t just run on earnings and economic data—they run on emotion, headlines, and whatever the front page is screaming. In a headline-driven tape, your edge isn’t just technical or fundamental—it’s emotional intelligence. Know what matters, what doesn’t, and when it’s better to sit out.
